On reading the fine print, studying the scenarios, and thinking differently
A year ago, I was working on a project and started wondering about The Fifth Dentist. You know, from the gum commercials.
Ages ago, the idea took hold that “four out of five dentists recommend Trident,” a brand of sugarless chewing gum. Simple enough, right? A survey was conducted, dentists were asked about chewing gum, and, for some reason, Trident was the winner.
In fact, if you were to ask me what other brands of sugarless chewing gum are on the market, I don’t know what I’d say. I don’t give it much thought, I’ve accepted the claim at face value — Get it? Dentists? “Face” Value? — and I guess we’ve moved on.
But…not everybody has moved on. And you shouldn’t either.
Four Out of Five…
Yes, there’s a mini-screed over at a blog from Ideal Dental. Yes, they take it rather seriously. Yes, the claims are really misleading.
I highlighted the part that got me thinking — and the rest of it is a fun read, sure — and then I started looking into what Trident actually said. From Wikipedia:
The survey wasn’t about Trident, it was about the category of “Sugarless Gum.”
Which brings us to…
The Tenth Man
After a surprise attack by Arab forces led to the 1973 Yom Kippur War, the Israeli Army needed to come up with a system that would insure against overconfidence.
To put it simply, if nine people agreed on something, a tenth man needed to come up with an argument against the other nine.
It’s “Institutionalized Devil’s Advocacy,” as Chris Meyer tells us over at The Mind Collective:
Are These Two Things Connected?
We’re in the age of “Narrative-driven Journalism” so we’re often looking for facts when all the other side is doing is aiming to be “Directionally Correct.” In the Trident example, you can draw a couple conclusions:
- Trident is in the business of selling sugarless gum
- Of course no dentist in their right mind would recommend a particular brand of gum
- It’s a win for the Trident marketing team to get you to think about their brand as tangentially recommended by a bunch of dentists.
Cynical, maybe, but…true. Trident is happy to be directionally correct.
And yes, you can make a connection between Trident and The Tenth Man:
- Everybody seems to have accepted the connection between Trident and four out of five dentists, but should they?
- Why DIDN’T the Fifth Dentist “cave?”*
- What reasons would there be for a dentist to recommend gum at all?
Your Thinking Can Evolve
Cynicism needn’t drive your every move in business and in life, but healthy skepticism is often warranted.
The contrarian viewpoint — be it from a fifth dentist or a tenth voice in an argument — can be your friend.
Oh, and the * above? Well, IYKYK.
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